Why Estimates never work
Somewhere, right now, a project manager is compiling estimates on a software project and coming up with a completion date based on “velocity” and “scope”. When they’re done, they’ll take their completed work and show it to their boss, who will look it over, and set a “hard date” for delivering the project. There will be a team meeting, the developers will be gathered, the plan will be presented to great fanfare, and everyone will go off to work, expecting that they’ll actually meet the hard deadline in three months. Three months will go by. The deadline will come and go. And in most cases, the deadline will be sorely missed. You can probably guess what happens next. Executives will be furious. Project managers will blame the “lazy” developers. Developers will blame the over-zealous estimates of the project managers. There may even be a death march. At the end of it all, much if not most of the developer team will quit, the executives will vow “never again”, and the resulting proje